One of the most difficult aspects of running a company — or even a life — is managing the what-ifs. What if we do this versus that? What if I take this path versus another? It is extremely difficult because you never know. What would have happened if we made another choice? We’ll probably never know because it didn’t happen.
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President Trump faces this issue with the Iranian war. He keeps saying Iran can never have a nuclear weapon and basically expects the general public to connect the dots as to what would happen if they did achieve the ability to make one.
But the public doesn’t see and live in the “what-if” but rather lives in the here-and-now. And in the here-and-now, fuel prices are very high. These fuel prices impact pretty much every product in the land but fall especially heavily in groceries.
So, in the here-and-now, the public isn’t too happy with the administration’s performance and may make them pay in the upcoming elections. How electing a bunch of socialists and commies is supposed to help this situation is lost on me, but that seems to be the general theme here. But of course, as that great philosopher H.L. Mencken once noted “No one in this world, so far as I know… has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people”
Which brings us back to President Trump and the very real pain the Iranian war is causing the American public. What is lost in the presentation is “versus what.” What is lost is the balancing of the present choices that were made versus the “what-if.”
In the next few weeks, President Trump and his team need to make the “what-if” scenario very real to people, versus hoping they will connect the dots with the repeated statement: Iran can’t get a nuclear weapon.
What do we think would happen if they did? First, the odds are overwhelming that they would quickly use them against the Little Satan, Israel. Israel has already stated that if attacked with nuclear weapons, it will respond in kind.
Yes, the general public understands that nuclear weapons are “bad” and would do a lot of damage, but you need to put this into clear words and videos. A very plausible scenario is Iran detonating a nuclear weapon or two in or around Israel. This almost immediately ends the country of Israel. Israel responds with multiple nuclear bombs into Iran, effectively destroying much of the country of Iran. Tens of millions will die.
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Oil prices could easily reach $400 a barrel, perhaps even higher. Fuel prices could easily be triple or more than what they are today. You might not be so concerned about grocery prices as with the very availability of groceries in the first place. Food lines could become common across the country. Basic services might become difficult, if not impossible, to provide. A worldwide recession like the globe has never seen might occur.
Across the board, this potential future is worse than the present by orders of magnitude. And this doesn’t even assume Iran is able to strike us, the Great Satan. If that were to happen, all these terrible events would be far worse, and that doesn’t even consider some other bad actor seeing this as an opportunity to act.
This is what managing the “what-ifs” is all about. Yes, I wish President Trump would have won the war forcefully long ago, but he has a heck of a lot more information than I do, so I have to give him the benefit of the doubt.
True, the present situation is squeezing the average American far more than desired — even though any honest analysis would put a lot of the blame on previous administrations of both parties.
But the effects of Iran actually using a nuclear weapon are astronomically worse than the present, short-term pain we all are experiencing. Of this there is no doubt.
Managing the “what-ifs” is never easy, but on this one, the Trump administration needs to very quickly explain to the American public what would have come their way if we hadn’t taken this route. You can’t expect people to connect the dots for you; you must do it for them
Because if they don’t help people see the catastrophic alternative that was racing our way — easily less than a year away — they are in for a very bad election day, and the entire country will suffer from these poor election decisions.
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Image: National Archives