How many times have you heard that the party out of power wins the midterms? To be fair, they often do as we saw in recent midterms like 1994, 2006 and 2010. However, as a history professor once told me, history repeats itself until it does not.
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Maybe 2026 will be one of those times when it does not. This is a great post from David Catron:
In addition to their funding advantage, the GOP won the fabled “redistricting wars,” leaving the Democrats with fewer pick-up opportunities in the House than they expected to have this cycle. As David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report writes, “In late spring of 2025, it would have been hard to believe that ten states would have new congressional maps in place for the 2026 midterms.” It wasn’t hard for the White House to believe, however. And, according to Wasserman, “the result is a 2026 House map that is more skewed towards Republicans and less elastic than before.” By “less elastic,” he means the number of competitive swing seats fell from 87 to 77 and the Democrats must win 57 of these seats to recapture the House.
In other words, the Democrats must win three-quarters of the swing seats with serious money problems and a DNC that is clearly dysfunctional. This brings us to the final Republican advantage in the midterms — the political team that orchestrated Trump’s historic return to the White House is managing the GOP’s midterm campaign. According to a report from Axios, it is led by James Blair and includes Susie Wiles, Chris LaCivita, Tony Fabrizio, and Joe Gruters. All are veterans of Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign and the successful mid-decade redistricting push. They all understand the historical headwinds they are facing. Nonetheless, if it is possible to beat the midterm curse this is the crew that can actually pull it off.
So money, redistricting and the crazy left may allow the GOP to pull off “the hat trick” — that expression that we hear in sports.
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The funding advantage will help GOP candidates in contested races.
The redistricting confirmed that the GOP was willing to fight back and take it to the Democrats, as they did with their own “gerrymandering” in Illinois or Maryland or Massachusetts.
The “crazy left” is the wild card here because the Democrats can not control their candidates. In other words, the Democrats have no idea what the next crazy idea from a crazy candidate is going to be. They also can not control if the Senate candidate in Michigan is going to support the Democrat who may beat him in Michigan. Don’t forget that some of these leftists hate the Democrat Party as much as they hate President Trump.
Yes, history favors Democrats, and they may take the House. At the same time, it’s not a done deal.
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