The Iranian leadership, its military forces, and its nuclear weapons program have suffered significant damage. For now, the regime is not capable of defending itself very well from further air attacks and is not capable of building nuclear bombs. These positive results are important and welcome. However, some critics of the memorandum of understanding between Iran and America seem to think otherwise. The memorandum is clear about Iran’s nuclear weapons program. The relevant text reads,
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The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material, pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon….
Obviously any agreement with a venomous snake like Iran comes down to the ability and the will to reliably monitor Iran’s behavior going forward — indefinitely.
Are the critics in favor of a real war with Iran? A war that sees Tehran and other important cities carpet bombed? Military bases and the troops on them obliterated? Swaths of civilian infrastructure decimated? Are they in favor of deploying the 82nd Airborne Division, 101st Air Assault Division, 10th Mountain Division or the 1st Marine Division? Units like these would be needed to gain control of key parts of Iran. If not, then these critics have no business criticizing the relatively limited deal extracted after a relatively limited military operation.
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The Iranians got their butts kicked, but they didn’t get knocked out. A true knockout blow would entail a much more widespread, and devastating air campaign. The air campaign would have to be followed with a ground invasion to seize key facilities, face down the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and gain access to what’s left of nuclear weapons sites. American combat units such as the ones listed above would be tasked with these objectives. A real war would mean thousands of military casualties on both sides and thousands of dead civilians in Iran. Certainly, Israel would face attack and perhaps the Gulf states too if the regime insisted on lashing out at its neighbors again. The Strait of Hormuz would not just be under a blockade, it would be an active war zone.
The MOU is not perfect, but there is no appetite in Congress or among the public for a real war with Iran. Lobbing criticisms from the sidelines is easy, but things get much tougher when America and Iran are lobbing bombs at each other. Everyone should think long and hard about what America would have to sacrifice to get the Iranian defeat and deal they want.
Mike has had dozens of articles published on various web sites and is the author of the book, A Short History of the Long War: The Global Struggle Against Militant Islamism.
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