When the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the U.S. and Iran first came out, it seemed more like the kind of agreement Barack Obama would come up with: a terrible capitulation to an evil empire.
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There were two camps of thought among conservatives: 1) Donald Trump gave away the house for nothing, snatched defeat from the claws of victory, and needlessly screwed its close ally Israel in the process, and 2) Trump had a devious plan to lure Iran into violating the MOU, after which no one can complain when he goes all-out in finishing Iran off.
Neither explanation seemed satisfactory: Trump is too shrewd to fall for 1), and it’s hard to explain why Trump would opt for 2) when finishing off Iran now would seem more expedient. It is becoming clear that the real reason is 3): The U.S. supply of long-range missiles is running low. Consider these points:
- Remember when we first heard of the possibility the U.S. might be running low on missiles? It was when Secretary of War Pete Hegseth was blasting Sen. Mark Kelly (D, Arizona, member of the Senate Armed Services and Intelligence committees) for “blabbing on TV” (it was “Face the Nation”) what he learned in a classified briefing that we were running low on missiles, saying that he should be investigated over his comments. Kelly replied, “We had this conversation in a public hearing a week ago and you said it would take ‘years’ to replenish some of these stockpiles. That’s not classified, it’s a quote from you.”
- Trump has invoked the Defense Production Act to try to expedite the restoration of our munitions stockpiles.
- J.D. Vance said that hawks “want this to go on until every bomb has been dropped or until every Iranian is dead.” Maybe the critical missile shortage was getting into his head.
- Have you wondered why Trump keeps saying no more mister nice guy, we’re going to bomb the heck out of the Iranians in the next few days, or tonight, send them back to the Stone Age and make WWII bombing look like a cakewalk by comparison if they don’t agree to a deal, their very last chance, but then he keeps backing down, claiming the Iranians really want a deal even when they deny it? Maybe it was all a bluff because he was running low on missiles.
The press widely reported on the analysis by the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) as to how long it would take the U.S. to rebuild its missile and munitions stocks. After perusing the CSIS report, it becomes obvious that we may need to clarify what we mean by the number remaining in a stockpile since some munitions are being diverted to Ukraine, some are sitting in Europe, some are in reserve in case China starts up with Taiwan, the lower-tech missiles have the same tonnage as the higher-tech ones being depleted faster but have shorter range and/or aren’t sea-based, etc. (Note that when Trump and other administration officials say we have plenty of missiles, technically they’re not necessarily lying.)
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Let’s not get too distracted with these details. The CSIS report is high-quality, detailed, and very impressive, but CSIS is not privy to classified information such as how many missiles are used in each sortie and how many have been used to date, which form the basis for their projections. For that, they must rely on unnamed administration officials, as reported by the likes of the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal.
Aside from the possibility that unnamed administration officials might lie to promote their own (Get Trump) agenda, would you blame these officials if they have been lying to the media by understating the number of missiles fired to date so as to mislead the Iranians into thinking we still have plenty of missiles left? I wouldn’t.
So maybe Trump agreed to what we thought was a horrible MOU to stall for a while (until after the midterms?) in order to at least partially replenish our munitions stocks, especially with the longer-range missiles that will avoid logistical issues and increased risk to U.S. troops. The stall no doubt had the added benefit of clearing the backlog of oil containers waiting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and resetting to zero the start date of the war so as to avoid potential Congressional interference as per the War Powers Resolution—not that other presidents have abided by it anyway.
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Image created using AI.
W.A. Eliot is a pseudonym.