Nine months ago, I described Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as the “Hologram Candidate” — a carefully engineered political image projecting considerably more substance than the record beneath it.

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Nothing since suggests that the hologram has become real.

Shapiro remains popular in conventional polling.  His campaign treasury is enormous, and he is regularly mentioned as a possible Democrat presidential candidate in 2028.

Meanwhile, the numbers claimed by his administration grow ever more suspect: more than $43 billion in private investment, nearly 29,000 jobs, record investments in education and historic economic development.

All reinforce the slogan inseparable from the Shapiro brand: “Get Stuff Done.”

But what, exactly, got done?

The Shapiro Reality Audit

Consider the claim that Shapiro has attracted more than $43 billion in private investment and created nearly 29,000 jobs.

To the ordinary voter, that means $43 billion has been invested in Pennsylvania and nearly 29,000 Pennsylvanians have new jobs.

That is not what the numbers bear out.

They include corporate commitments stretching years into the future, jobs companies promise to create years from now, projects awaiting construction or approvals, and projects that may never be built.

Earlier this year, the administration claimed about $35 billion in investment and 18,000 jobs.  By July it was $41 billion and 24,000 jobs.  On September 1, after announcing a $1.2 billion Chobani project, the total approached 27,000 jobs.  Two days later, a Burlington Stores announcement pushed jobs to nearly 29,000.

Pennsylvania did not put thousands of people to work.  Chobani’s 900 jobs and Burlington’s 2,000 are projected over five years.

The jobs do not yet exist.  Only the statistic does.

That is why the impressive cumulative totals tell us much less than they appear to.  To understand what Shapiro has actually accomplished, the announcements have to be separated according to what has actually happened.

Five Kinds of “Accomplishment”

Some are genuine accomplishments.  The rapid reopening of I-95 after its 2023 collapse is Shapiro’s favorite example.  He deserves credit for declaring an emergency and demanding rapid action, but PennDOT, engineers, contractors, and construction crews did the work after normal bidding, permitting, and bureaucratic procedures were waived or accelerated.  I-95 demonstrated how quickly Pennsylvania can get stuff done when government, including Shapiro, gets out of the way.

Others are real projects under development, where construction or other tangible activity has begun but much of the advertised investment and employment remains unrealized.

Third are credible future commitments such as Chobani and Burlington.  They may become excellent projects, but jobs promised for 2030 or 2031 are not jobs created in 2026.

Fourth are paper projects — impressive announcements made before financing, power, permits, customers, and community approval are secured.

Finally are projects later canceled, downsized, or indefinitely postponed.

Yet all contribute to the headline numbers when announced.  When promised investment and jobs are added to Shapiro’s totals, are they ever subtracted when a project shrinks or disappears?

The Data-Center Two-Step

Pennsylvania’s rush into A.I. data centers provides a particularly revealing test.

In June 2025, Shapiro announced that he had “secured” Amazon’s planned $20-billion Pennsylvania data center investment.  That single future commitment represents nearly half of the private investment Shapiro now claims to have attracted.

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Then data centers became politically troublesome.

In August, Shapiro removed A.I. data centers from his Fast Track permitting program and imposed new restrictions.  He warned that more than 100 proposals were being discussed, but most were “completely speculative” and many would never be built.  Some lacked financing, electricity, or even a technology company committed to use the facility.

Shapiro also acknowledged that no A.I. data centers were then operating in Pennsylvania, and only five had obtained the permits necessary for their first phase.

When data centers were politically attractive, their future investment was claimed to demonstrate that Shapiro “Gets Stuff Done.”  Now he “Gets Stuff Done” by protecting communities from speculative data center development.

The investment remains on the résumé either way.

You cannot count the promise as an accomplishment on Monday and warn about its undesirable consequences on Tuesday.

Nor is the problem confined to corporate investment.  The same tendency to treat inputs and promises as accomplishments appears in government spending.

Spending Is Not an Accomplishment

Government spending is routinely described as “investment.”  Increased education appropriations become an education accomplishment.  A grant announcement becomes economic development.

But the question is not simply how much Pennsylvania spends on education, but whether students become better educated.  An economic development grant becomes an accomplishment when the business operates, employs people, and produces something.

Despite the increasing gap between announcement and accomplishment, Shapiro’s favorable poll numbers persist.  That might appear to contradict the hologram thesis.  In fact, it helps explain how the image survives.

Polling the Hologram

A poll can accurately measure an inaccurately informed electorate.

Pennsylvanians have repeatedly been told that Shapiro attracted tens of billions in investment, created tens of thousands of jobs, and “Gets Stuff Done.”  If those totals include money not yet invested, jobs not yet created, and projects that may never be built, poll respondents may be evaluating the record presented to them rather than the record that exists, based upon an often misleading picture.

That isn’t evidence that the hologram has disappeared.  It may simply demonstrate how successfully the image has been created and maintained.

And maintaining that image requires considerable resources.

Maintaining the Shapiro Image

Shapiro has accumulated an enormous political treasury supporting consultants, digital media, travel, and political infrastructure.  His administration also maintains a substantial taxpayer-funded communications operation.

Government communications is not a campaign expenditure, but its political value can be enormous.

Taxpayers fund the announcement. The administration packages the accomplishment.  The media distribute it.  The political operation inherits the image.

For a governor widely believed to have presidential ambitions, the political value is immediate.  The economic value may be years away — or may never arrive.

The Hologram Lives On

The polls still say Josh Shapiro is popular.  But Pennsylvanians cannot spend an investment that has not been made.  They cannot work at jobs that have not been created.  Communities cannot collect taxes from facilities that have not been built.  And taxpayers receive little benefit from subsidizing projects that exist primarily as announcements of what might happen years from now.

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Image: Josh Shapiro.  Credit: Governor Tom Wolf via Flickr, CC BY 2.0.