You might say that I believe in predestination. More specifically, I believe that our identity, constructed at a young age, charts the future course of our lives. So much so that even when we face objective evidence, later in life, that runs counter to our identity and the worldview that we have shaped to fit it, we will reject that evidence.
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Our identity is constructed by evaluating our circumstances relative to a reference group rather than against some objective standard. We instinctively compare ourselves to the people around us. Our ambitions, expectations, even our definition of success are calibrated by observing our parents and peers far more than by abstract ideals. Moreover, our worldview buttresses our identity.
I will give you a couple of examples:
Imagine growing up in a typical household with liberal parents. On the positive side, you observe that your parents have steady employment, pay bills on time, and save for retirement. On the other hand, you watch as they obsess over sorting garbage into multi-colored bins, fret that any activity or purchase they make may endanger the planet, and worship a little man named Fauci as the incarnation of science and the Second Coming combined.
I can predict with 90% precision that you will end up going to some New England college, getting a worthless degree in marine science, and acquiring your parent’s obsession with sorting garbage and purchasing carbon offsets on flights to Cabo in the winter. I can predict with 100% accuracy, if you are a girl, that you will be sporting several colorful tattoos and affect a gender confusion in the company of your friends.
Now, imagine growing up in the projects. You grow up surrounded by adults struggling with chronic unemployment, payday loans, frequent eviction notices, or constant financial crisis. You do not necessarily think that those things are good. You just think that they are normal. There is a subtle but significant distinction between what a person thinks is right and what a person is used to. It is one of the most powerful forces shaping our future.
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The idea extends beyond finance to every aspect of your life. If no one around you has ever attended college, college feels less like an obvious next step and more like something that other people do. If someone in your social circle works 40 hours a week, that’s what adulthood looks like. If everyone hustles multiple jobs and relies on gig work, that becomes your reference point instead.
Think of the occupation of a rodeo clown. Most of us are multiple degrees of separation away from anyone in that profession. Likewise, a kid in the projects has a similar degree of separation away from a professional like an engineer. Even if later in life, he is exposed to that profession, he would not be able to muster the ambition to pursue it because it was not something that he could reference as a young boy.
I do not fully discount genetics, as a replicating mechanism in predestination. Also, I do not discount random circumstance, like an accident that leaves one paralyzed. However, I believe cultural forces, in particular, calibration relative to a reference group, is the predominant engine driving individual destiny. As for objective reflection and free will playing a major role in defining one’s destiny, I see less and less evidence for it.
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Image generated by ChatGPT.