Midterm elections rarely turn out well for the ruling party. Only twice in the last century has the president’s party gained House seats in the midterms.
Read more A Europe United In Infamy
President Trump has broken many precedents with his second term. Can his congressional majorities do the same this year?
Accurately handicapping congressional elections has grown more complicated over the years. Prediction markets, fake polls, and generic commentary grifting have obscured solid predictions. Despite my best hopes when the data are depressing, I have made plenty of mistakes on this front.
What can we hope for this year? Can Republicans defy history a third time? Better yet, can they manage until 2028 if they lose?
Let’s say that Democrats have a good night. It’s doubtful they will pick up forty seats, as they did in 2018. Multiple sites have suggested as many as sixteen swing congressional districts. Let’s imagine that Democrats win enough swing seats to get a five-seat majority in the House of Representatives.
Does minority leader Hakeem Jeffries have a smooth pathway to the speakership? In January, he will face several DSA-endorsed newcomers who defeated Democrat incumbents, including Melat Kiros (CO-1), Darializa Avila Chevalier (NY-13), and Donavan McKinney (MI-13). Other DSA-friendly insurgents, including Brad Lander (NY-10) and Luke Bronin (CT-1), also defeated longtime establishment incumbents.
Jeffries will likely face the same caucus revolt as Kevin McCarthy did with the slim Republican majority in 2023. A five-seat majority means little when incoming challengers have targeted Democrat party insiders the whole time. If he wins the Speaker’s gavel, he will have a hard time controlling his slim majority.
Because of this development, Democrat pundit and Clinton mastermind James Carville remarked that Republicans holding the House by a slim margin would be better than Democrats winning by five seats. Minority Dems can still frustrate the Republican agenda, instead of a Democrat majority enjoying only the mere appearance of power, frequently frustrated by the rebellious DSA caucus.
Not only does Jeffries have to contend with opponents to his left, but a moderate faction within the current Democrat House conference will push him from the right. They profess their love of capitalism, America, and the police, along with their rejection of pro-Palestinian extremism.
These rising factions expose a Democrat party that can’t control its members as well as in the past. Gone are the days when Speaker Pelosi could hunt down members of her conference, even confronting them in the bathroom, and demand they vote the right way…or else.
Two Democrats in Jeffries’ caucus have voted with Republicans on procedural issues: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA) and Jared Golden (D-ME). Golden is retiring in a Trump +10 district. Gluesenkamp Perez faces the fight of her life against an established Republican, without the controversy of her previous opponent.
Jeffries can talk, but he can’t do anything about them. Expect more of this if he becomes Speaker.
Does the current election environment portend a Democrat majority, though?
Even in a D+5 voting environment, Gluesenkamp Perez could lose, and enough Republicans could maintain their seats to hold on. In another sign of trouble for Democrats, their states are showing a Republican resurgence, perhaps a red backlash to DSA craziness or a legacy of Democrat-trifecta failure.
Read more When Congress Stops Governing, Presidents Fill The Void
In Oregon, Republican state senator Christine Drazan is running neck and neck with incumbent Democrat governor Tina Kotek, with polls showing a race within the margin of error. In traditionally Democrat Minnesota, statewide Republicans are campaigning on widespread fraud and corruption. Republican Michele Tafoya has forced Democrat lieutenant governor Peggy Flanagan, a two-spirited dingbat saddled with failed governor Tim Walz’s incompetence, into debates for the U.S. Senate seat. Minnesota Republicans like their chances of taking over the state legislature.
In Michigan, former Republican congressman Mike Rogers is in a close U.S. Senate race against DSA-tainted Abdul El-Sayed.
Some pundits doubt that Republicans can win statewide office in those historically Democrat states. Nevertheless, the competitive races are forcing their liberal opponents to spend money in otherwise guaranteed contests, potentially hurting their chances of winning House seats and further endangering their chances of taking the U.S. Senate.
My optimistic appraisal is that Republicans maintain a slim House majority. Party activists get excited in a banner year for their side, and they think they can push the most ideologically polarizing candidates and still carry the day.
As for the U.S. Senate, the prediction markets seem manipulated. Can the Democrats retake the Senate? I doubt it. Then again, “safe” Republicans in Kansas and South Carolina have debated their opponents, since polls are closer than expected. Besides, polling in 2022 suggested a Republican could defeat Democrat Patty Murray in Washington State, but she won handily anyway.
If the past is prologue, comparing Election 2026 to Election 2022, Republicans could even gain a seat! Perhaps Minnesota or Michigan, while holding North Carolina, even though former Democrat governor Roy Cooper is popular, in contrast to Michael Whatley, who parachuted in after having served as RNC chair. My worst-case scenario: Republicans maintain a 52-seat majority. Best case? Republicans have 54 U.S. Senate seats.
Despite possible dark outcomes taking hold on Election Day 2026, we can hope for more than a silver lining to propel the larger MAGA agenda into the future.
At best, Democrats will take back the House on paper but accomplish nothing because of DSA-versus-moderate-Dem infighting. Jeffries will spend two years trying to control a conference whose members disagree not just over individual bills but over the fundamental direction of the Democrat party. The socialists will demand their agenda, the moderates will resist, and the leadership will have to answer for the resulting dysfunction.
In the meantime, Republicans can capitalize on their Big Beautiful Bill. If Trump resolves the Iran war and gas prices go down, Republicans could find themselves in a much stronger position heading into 2028.
And by then, Trump will be leaving office, potentially giving suburban voters who dislike his rhetoric and style another reason to consider returning to the Republican Party.
That is the real silver lining in a narrow Democrat House victory. Democrats might get the Speaker’s gavel, but they will also get responsibility for two years of infighting, gridlock, and failed leadership. Republicans may lose the House in 2026, only to watch Democrats squander their victory and help Republicans win big again in 2028.
Read more Why Leftists Won’t Let Us Live
Image created using AI.