Let’s make this prediction for once and all: In the Senate race, State Rep. James Talarico is not winning in Texas. Put me down on that one. What we are watching is almost a rerun of what we saw with Congressman Beto O’Rourke in 2018. Everything looked great for Beto until rural voters had the last word. I believe that something similar (but larger) will happen in 2026.
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Let’s check this out from Kurt Schlichter:
When Vice President JD Vance told the midterm convention audience that he had absolutely no desire to see James Talarico’s browser history, it got a good laugh. Talarico has that weird, smarmy creepiness thing going on, combined with casual blasphemy, a hatred of capitalism, and the sensibilities of a white-wine woman who works in HR and celebrates Kwanzaa. He’s a terrible fit for America, and an unimaginable fit for Texas.
But people are imagining it. They’re imagining it hard, especially people outside Texas. If you listen to the pollsters- and you should never listen to the pollsters- he’s either neck-and-neck with Ken Paxton or beating the TX AG handily.
The smart set contends that Texas is about to tumble into the blue chasm at the hands of a guy who’s less Beto’s heir than Pete Buttigieg’s grinning Mini-Me.
So, I decided, now that I’m back at my Texas house for the fall, to see for myself what’s really going on. Here’s what I found.
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Not much. I am not seeing the Talaricomania.
I am not seeing Tararico mania either, unless you are reading polls. I finally saw a Talarico yard sign the other day and it was the same house that had one for Vice President Kamala Harris the last time around. The TV is now full of Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton ads focusing on those differences, from taxes to voter ID to border enforcement.
The problem is that the Democrats do not understand Texas. They don’t get that this is a very conservative, not necessarily Republican, state. In other words, a conservative Democrat, sort of the type that Health and Human Services Secretary Robert Kennedy said would not recognize today’s party, could win here. He would have to take a firm line on the border and illegal immigration. He would sound a lot like Rep. Henry Cuellar on social issues and reject DSA. He’d be more like the late Sen. Lloyd Bentsen on the value of capitalism, free trade and foreign policy.
The bottom line is that he would not be like James Talarico at all. And that’s why he is not winning.
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