Recent cruise missile strikes by Ukraine have evidently crippled Russia’s space program.
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On the night of August 15-16, Ukrainian FP-5 missiles struck the Progress Rocket Space Center at Samara, which builds Soyuz II launchers, the primary Russian space launch vehicle. Soyuz rockets are used to launch both military and civilian satellites, including those comprising Rassvet, Russia’s answer to Elon Musk’s Starlink system. It’s likely that crippling Rassvet was the major aim of the strike.
The strike badly damaged, and perhaps destroyed, the central Soyuz production workshop – photos show a large hole in the roof of the structure. The strike also caused a fire that covered 5000 meters of the center. Analysts have stated that operations have been curtailed, leaving Russia with no other source of rocket boosters.
This follows a previous series of attacks on the Dubna satellite communications center near Moscow in late June, along with the Kombinat Kamensky rocket fuel plant in the Rostov region this past week.
The Progress strike was carried out using FP-5 Flamingo missiles, a homemade system manufactured by Ukrainian company Fire Point (which was founded, believe it or not, not by weapons or electronics professionals but by a group of construction contractors, game designers, and architects. That’s right – mighty Russia is being whipped by a bunch of gamers.) The Flamingo is intended to fill the role of the U.S. Tomahawk, which the U.S. government declined to provide to Ukraine. It is larger than the Tomahawk at 13,000 lbs. to 2,900 lbs., and carries a much larger 2,500 b. warhead. Drawbacks are that it’s not as accurate and cannot be retargeted in flight. Some commenters have said that the Flamingo is powered by “end-of-life” jet engines that would otherwise need to be scrapped. The Flamingo became operational in August 2025. Ukraine considers it to be its best cruise missile.
The Russians have succeeded in improving their air defenses to a point where they can shoot down the majority of incoming drones and missiles, up to hundreds in any given raid (Russia claims to have shot down 477 drones this week alone). But it’s reported that Ukraine can turn out up to three Flamingos a day (as compared to the 60 a year for the Tomahawk). Evidently, five out of six were shot down over Samar.
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Some question exists as to how Ukrainian drones and missiles are being effectively targeted in areas not covered by Starlink, which provides GPS used in directing missiles. Either Ukraine has figured out a hack, or it’s using some other form of technology.
This strike may well have reverberations lasting for decades. Russia does not have another source of launch vehicles. Losing space launch capability would require the Russians to turn to others to launch necessary satellites, at high cost. It would also knock Russia out of the manned space game at the very point that the U.S. is regaining its stride after its decades-long nap and moving out into space in a big way.
Peter Zeihan, in his customary enthusiastic fashion, says that this marks the “disembowelment of Russia’s capability of being a technical power” and that he expects the Russian space program to be extinct by the end of the year.
We shall see. Whatever you may think of Ukraine or its government, this is a remarkable achievement. Four-and-a-half years after the start of the one-week war, Ukraine is still punching above its weight. Russia is now well on its way to becoming a 1950s pre-space-travel state, like Gabon or Guatemala. Next stop, the 19th century.
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