As I wrote at the time, Pres. Trump made a good deal in June, got the oil flowing, and left the Iranians with no leverage and few benefits. So the IRGC reneged on it in a few weeks and started shooting.
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Now we learn the U.S. Navy has set up a stealth convoy system for Hormuz that is taking 9-15 million barrels a day out of the Gulf, according to Energy Sec. Chris Wright. When you combine that with the 7-8 million barrels from the Hormuz bypass pipes, we are getting back to the pre-war normal of 20 million barrels from the Gulf.
Wright was bitterly mocked by the MSM when he announced this last week, but further mainstream reporting is now conceding this is basically true. While all the national and international media obsessed about the hopeless position the United States had reached, the stalemate was carefully being reversed.
It seems our military specifically targeted Iran’s anti-ship capacity, including coastal radars and look-out boats, over the last two months. It is very much harder to hit fast-moving tankers with a missile than a fixed land target. Especially if it is being protected by Navy jammers and interceptors.
The ball is in the Iranian court. We can now move a lot of oil without them being able to do much about it. Complicating things further, while the IRGC is firmly in control of the country, apparently each commander has near autonomy for his own forces. That leaves decision-making slow, and the guys in charge of the dwindling missile forces may not be in agreement with Tehran on what to do next.
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While they figure it out, we might see a big drop in oil prices. This may lead to a situation like 1988, when the Iranians threw in the towel after President Reagan destroyed their navy and ended Iran’s first attempt to block the Gulf.
On the other hand, if the IRGC wants to keep playing a losing hand, they can strike the oil fields and desalination plants of their neighbors and try to take everyone down with them.
So far, they talk like that, but I wonder if that is more for show. All-out war would, in the end, leave Pres.. Trump and the Arab states no choice but some kind of Allied ground invasion to end the regime; much like Pres. Trump did in 2017 with ISIS in Iraq and Syria. I suspect the Iranian regime knows whose side most ordinary Iranians will be on if it comes to that.
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Frank Friday is an attorney in Louisville, KY.
Image: National Archives