A media truism is that “dog bites man” is not a story, while “man bites dog” is. That’s a dictum you should remember when you read leftist outlets crowing about yesterday’s primaries being a disaster for Trump.
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It’s a story only because something unusual happened: Namely, Trump’s chosen candidates didn’t sweep the board. But behind that headline is the fact that, for the most part, those whom he endorsed did well and, no matter the candidate, voters clearly supported Trump’s agenda.
To give you a taste of leftist gloating:
- WaPo: “Trump pick for Wyoming governor loses primary, adding to string of defeats.”
- Daily Beast: “Trump Humiliated by String of Endorsement Flops in Key Races.”
- MS-NOW: “Lawrence: Trump-endorsed primary losses show Trump might not pick the next GOP presidential nominee.”
Even conservative sites liked to bring Trump into the headline:
- Fox News: “Media executive overcomes Trump endorsement in race to succeed Byron Donalds in ‘circus-like primary.’”
- New York Post: “Primary elections 2026 live updates: Byron Donalds makes no mention of Trump in victory speech after winning Florida GOP gov race.”
And regarding yesterday, there is an element of truth to those reports, despite the gloating or the doom-and-gloom feeling. In high-profile, competitive races in Wyoming and Florida, four of those whom Trump endorsed won and three lost. However, the losses likely didn’t signal voters rejecting Trump:
- Rep. Cory Mills (FL) got Trump’s early endorsement, then ended up with scandal allegations dogging him and wasn’t on Trump’s final list of endorsed candidates, so Ryan Elijah’s win wasn’t unexpected.
- Catalina Lauf (FL) only got Trump’s endorsement five days before the election before losing to Jim Schwartzel.
- Megan Degenfelder (WY) was already trailing Barlow and ran an increasingly negative campaign that apparently did little to close the gap.
That reflects a strong deviation from Trump’s track record in this year’s primary elections. As of July 8, Ballotpedia calculated that 97% of Trump-endorsed candidates had won their primaries. Even after subsequent losses, his 2026 primary success rate remains about 96%. Admittedly, some were sure things because they were incumbents in safe seats, but certainly not all.
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So, should MAGA voters despair? Is the Trump magic over? No. Not at all. As noted above, the losses yesterday were in difficult races, with difficult candidates.
More importantly, even when Trump’s Midas touch failed, the winning candidates were still either MAGA candidates or candidates broadly aligned with Trump’s policies. In other words, whether because of scandal (e.g., Cory Mills), disliking an endorsed candidate (Degenfelder), or something else, voters may have rejected an endorsed candidate, but they did not reject Trump’s policies:
In other words, while those Republican voters who make the effort to vote in primaries may occasionally quarrel with a specific candidate whom Trump endorses, they strongly continue to back the Trump agenda. Trump may no longer be able to dictate every Republican nominee, but the Republican primary electorate remains overwhelmingly loyal to the Trump agenda.
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Image created using AI.