So far, 2026 doesn’t fit the midterm narrative. I mean the one about unpopular presidents creating an opening for the opposition to sweep the election. Remember 1994 or 2006 or 2010?
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Yes, 2026 doesn’t fit that narrative despite having an unpopular president based on polls.
So what’s the big deal? Ronald Brownstein has an idea:
“Views about the incumbent president’s performance have become arguably the most powerful factor shaping modern midterm elections. But Democrats are struggling to convert pervasive disapproval of Trump’s second term into sufficient support for their House and Senate candidates.
The result is what might be called the 2026 approval gap. From one direction, Trump’s job approval rating has plummeted below the level that triggered midterm wave elections against other contemporary presidents, including Bill Clinton in 1994, George W. Bush in 2006, Barack Obama in 2010 and Trump himself in 2018. And yet most surveys do not show Democrats establishing a clear or consistent advantage in the key races that will decide control of the House and Senate.
Evan Roth Smith, a Democratic pollster allied with the party’s centrist wing, notes that in 2018, the share of voters who disapproved of Trump’s performance was about 10 points larger than the share who approved. Today, Smith points out, Trump’s net approval rating is about 20 points negative — twice as bad — and yet the Democrat lead in generic ballot tests for the 2026 House election is considerably smaller than the party’s actual advantage of about 8.5 points in the 2018 national House popular vote.
And that’s the mystery of ’26. Yes, Trump is down, but so are the other guys.
So what’s going on?
Maybe the polls are meaningless, especially when there’s a poll every 5 minutes. It seems like every other story these days is about somebody doing a poll. Do you get the feeling that everyone on the phone at the game is talking to a pollster?
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Maybe the polls or voters don’t get serious until after Labor Day. After all, what poll two years ago had Trump winning the popular vote or 80% of the counties? I recall a lot of experts saying that he might win the Electoral College but never the popular vote.
Maybe the Democrats just don’t offer a viable alternative to Trump. The Democrats’ message is so confusing these days and hard to follow. One corner wants to cancel the Senate and Electoral College. Then in the other corner they’re screaming that these people don’t speak for the party.
Wait a minute: Aren’t they winning primaries? Won’t they have a “D” next to their names? What party is that?
So here we are in mid-July and no one has a clue. It’s sort of been that way since Trump came down the escalator and turned politics upside down.
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