Elections in Israel are tentatively scheduled for October 2026, but that can change if a full-scale war with Iran erupts in the coming weeks or months.
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For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the prospects for a victory are narrowing. His coalition partners — the ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) parties — are not in his pocket as of yet, and there are defections from his own Likud party. And although some have considered American-born Ron Dermer (Netanyahu’s right-hand man and former Israeli ambassador to the U.S.) as a potential successor, it does not appear that Dermer has the desire to enter Israel’s tumultuous political arena.
Ukrainian-born Yuli Edelstein, once second only to Netanyahu on the Likud party list and a former chairman of the Security and Foreign Relations Knesset Committee, is leaving the Likud and is in negotiations with several other Likud members who oppose any arrangement that would give haredi youth an exemption from military service. Those Likud members include former Israeli ambassador to the U.N. Gilad Erdan; former justice minister under Naftali Bennett’s government Ayelet Shaked (not a Likud member); and Sharren Haskel, deputy foreign minister.
Former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot has been gaining steam according to recent polls and currently is Netanyahu’s lead challenger. In September 2025, Eisenkot launched his own party, called Yashar. Eisenkot advocates for an Israeli state rooted in national Jewish values but with equal rights for all citizens. He seems to support a two-state solution with the Palestinians, prioritizing the Jordan Valley and settlement blocs, and supports a long-term ceasefire and demilitarization in the Gaza Strip. He has emphasized the need for a robust security policy and internal unity in Israel, viewing domestic polarization as a significant threat. He backs reforms to strengthen the separation of powers in the Israeli government. Eisenkot indicated that he supports military service exemptions for up to three percent of Haredim enrolled at their yeshiva for religious studies but opposes the longstanding system that grants significant exemptions to ultra-Orthodox men.
Many longtime Likud constituents accept Eisenkot as a potentially viable alternative to Netanyahu. Yet Eisenkot is an untested enigma. The former IDF chief of staff, who lost his son in the Gaza war, has enjoyed a high degree of sympathy and trust, yet his halting English language skills and his left-leaning tendencies are likely to give Likud voters and others second thoughts.
Naftali Bennett has touted himself as the anti-Netanyahu opposition leader and thus as the prime minister to replace Netanyahu. He has been upstaged, however, by Eisenkot, who is now garnering the highest number of projected mandates in the polls. Bennett’s merger with Lapid and the formation of their new party, Together (B’yachad), has seemingly not impressed enough potential voters to keep him in the running as the leader of the opposition (to Netanyahu). In the 2022 elections, Bennett and his party did not compete. In 2025, he registered for a new party with the temporary name Bennett 2026. B’yachad will run together with Yesh Atid in the 2026 elections.
Whereas Bennett considers himself a religious right-winger with liberal views, Lapid is adamantly secular with center-left ideological positions. The Bennett-Lapid platform calls for institutional reform, including limiting the reign of a prime minister to eight years and advocating a universal conscription law for all citizens. Although national unity is another goal of the Together Party, this call is merely a slogan that virtually all parties have adopted but have never prioritized once in office. The Together Party seeks to establish a State Commission of Inquiry into the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks.
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Neither Eisenkot nor Bennett has the charisma Netanyahu possesses. Netanyahu’s fluency in the English language sets him apart from his rivals, although Bennett’s family immigrated from the U.S., and his English is excellent. But what Bennett and Eisenkot lack is the international experience that Netanyahu possesses on one hand and his economic accomplishments on the other. During his 18 years as prime minister, he revolutionized the Israeli economy and anchored it in a sound capitalistic system.
Netanyahu’s ability to cultivate close relationships with world leaders, in particular with U.S. president Donald J. Trump and India’s prime minister Narendra Modi, has placed him in a unique position. Nevertheless, Netanyahu’s close relationship with Trump and the Republican Party has alienated him from America’s Democrat party, and that may be a shortcoming exploited by his rivals.
The Madad poll of July 13, 2026 shows the following results:
Likud (led by Netanyahu) 22
Yashar (led by Eisenkot) 23
B’Yachad (led by Bennett) 16
Israel Beitenu (led by Avigdor Lieberman) 10
The Democrats (led by Yair Golan) 10
Shas (led by Areyah Deri) 8
Otzma Yehudit (led by Itamar Ben Gvir) 8
United Torah Judaism (led by Yitzhak Goldknopf) 8
Religious Zionists (led by Bezalel Smotrich) 5
Although the poll indicates that the opposition parties stand to gain 59 mandates in the 120-seat Knesset (Israeli Parliament) to Netanyahu’s coalition of 51 (10 mandates going to the Arab parties), the anti-Netanyahu bloc is still short of a majority. To govern, they would therefore need to recruit Ra’am, the Arab Islamist party, and that is likely to split the anti-Netanyahu opposition.
Netanyahu’s prospects have been written off by election polls in the past only to eventually emerge on top.
Netanyahu’s principal problem is the length of his tenure as prime minister. Should Netanyahu succeed in winning the upcoming election, and run his coalition government full term, he will be 81 years old and will have been in power for 22 years. He has served longer than any previous prime minister, including the founder of the state of Israel, David Ben-Gurion. And yet, it is hard to find in Israel’s political world a figure who can match Netanyahu’s stature.
Image: Benjamin Netanyahu. Credit: Кабінет Міністрів України via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0 (cropped).
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