An admittedly oddball theory about the MOU and Trump’s long-term plans

Often, a joke isn’t a joke at all. It’s a humorous way to voice a concern. Indeed, it’s a standard trope that wives complain that their husband’s “joke” isn’t funny at all, but is, instead, a passive-aggressive insult. It’s in that light that I’m viewing the Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and Trump’s “joke” that he’ll blame Vance if the MOU fails…which it will, because it’s a lousy deal.

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Preliminarily, the deal was necessary because total victory is not possible. That’s because, as Trump understands, in a post-WWII era, America’s institutions, everything from a cowardly Congress to the entire Democrat establishment, will not allow America to win a war. The left will push an anti-war narrative that paints America as the bad guy, and congressional quislings won’t want to fund a long war (or a short, intense war). The best that can be hoped for is not actually being defeated.

In any event, Trump may not want total victory because it would mean becoming an occupying force. Contrary to leftist assertions, Trump is not an imperialist. For him, America First means keeping America strong, not becoming a colonial power. He saw what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan, including the way Democrat administrations relentlessly destroyed our achievements. He will not go there.

What Trump needed was a way out of the fighting because he must win the midterms. As long as the Strait is at risk, oil prices will remain high. High oil prices, in turn, dramatically increase the possibility that the Dems take the House and even the Senate.

Worse, as the election outcome in New York City shows, the Democratic Socialists of America (“DSA”) has the wind at its back. It’s going to become an ever louder voice in Congress, and, a few objections notwithstanding, it will eat the Democrat party, which has already allowed radicals to set the agenda.

The DSA that it will extend voting to all people on American soil, create a European-style multi-party Congress, end the Electoral College, and weaken the Supreme Court. DSA writings also argue for destroying the entire Constitution. And of course, the DSA is virulently antisemitic (just like the National Socialists of Germany were).

Trump needed an exit strategy, and JD Vance led the team that negotiated the MOU, something that could have been a huge feather in his political cap. The problem for Vance is that the MOU really is a lousy deal. It requires little of Iran, allows the people in charge to remain in power, gives cash to the mullahs and IRGC, and leaves Israel hanging out there, still vulnerable to Iran’s genocidal depredations as expressed through Hezbollah. The base rightly hates the deal, and no party can win without its base.

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Given that America has pummeled Iran, it’s hard to believe that the negotiating team couldn’t have done better. But still, Trump is stuck with this, and he’ll make the best of it because of those all-important midterms.

But Trump, who pays close attention to trends, has undoubtedly noticed a couple of things about his Vice President: he negotiated a lousy deal, and he’s way too close to the Tucker Carlson renegades from the Republican party. He’s also being seen as overtly and covertly antisemitic, which means alienating a base that supports Israel, which is a true friend to the U.S., and driving away the Jews who have recently abandoned the Democrat party over antisemitism.

What Trump must also have noticed is Marco Rubio’s soaring popularity. Rubio is competent, morally clear, and has no connection to the increasingly weird and antisemitic Carlson Crew. The “Marco Finds Out” memes are a testament to the increasing fondness Republicans feel for Trump’s Secretary of State. Certainly, while Vance still tops straw polls, Rubio is rapidly rising.

Trump will not jettison his Vice President in the near future, and Vance has many strengths. Indeed, I do not dislike him. I just distrust his closeness to the disgraceful Carlson crew, and I am leery of his explicit attacks on Israel and his insults to the “neocons,” which is often code for “the Jews.”

Still, I think it’s open to question just how much Trump was actually joking when he announced that Vance would take the fall if the MOU fails (as it inevitably will):

Your thoughts?

Image created using AI.