Life expectancy in the U.S. declined by approximately two years from 2019 to 2021 (Fig. 1). At first glance, this appears to have been driven by COVID-19, but actuarial data from Social Security indicates two patterns contrary to the narrative of a novel virus that mostly that was culling the elderly (Fig. 2 and 3). First, the age group most affected by rising death rate in 2020-2021 was ages 25-45, with death rates for this group nearly doubling in 2021. Second, the sharp rise in death rate for ages 30-40 started at least five years before the SARS-CoV-2 came to the US (dotted lines represent 2020 or later). What happened in the US from 2010-2021?
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Fig. 1: Life expectancy graph courtesy of .
Fig. 2: Death rates graph courtesy of the Asian Pacific Journal of Health Sciences, 13(2), 34–42.
Fig. 3: Death rates graph courtesy of the Asian Pacific Journal of Health Sciences, 13(2), 34–42
Data from the CDC indicate that most of the excess deaths for ages 25–45 were the result of overdose, mostly as the result of synthetic opioids (Figs. 4 and 5). This article from Our World in Data shows how opioid deaths in the U.S. rose dramatically after 2000, and this interactive chart from the CDC indicates how the surge in overdose deaths during the so-called “COVID years” claimed over 400,000 American lives.
Numerous articles written between 2010 and 2020 pointed out that U.S. life expectancy was declining due to drug overdose. Then, in 2020, the opioid epidemic was overshadowed by a pandemic that (in sharp contrast to the influenza of 1918) targeted mainly the elderly. The prioritization of COVID-19 over the opioid epidemic was astonishing on two levels. First, the death rates for ages 75 and higher increased 10–17 percent over their 2019 baseline in 2020–2021 (Fig. 2 and 3). Second, younger Americans have much more to lose when their lives are cut short. From this perspective, the misguided countermeasures that prioritized senior citizens at the expense of younger Americans struggling with addiction seems nothing short of criminal.
Fig. 4: Drug overdose death rates among those aged 15 and over, by selected age group: United States, 2019 and 2020. Data Briefs Number 428. December 2021.
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Fig. 5: Age-adjusted rates of drug overdose deaths involving opioids, by type of opioid: United States, 1999–2020. Data Briefs Number 428. December 2021.
Those who never experienced a friend or relative dealing with addiction may dismiss substance abuse as a “removal of misfits who are a drag on society,” but a drug epidemic of this magnitude reflects worse on the society that allows it than on the drug addicts themselves, especially when it was downplayed to prioritize a “pandemic” that minimally increased death rates of its main victims. The exaggerated perception of the pandemic’s death toll was largely the result of a demographic transition, whereby a critical mass of Boomers (Americans born 1946–1964) reached an age when a larger portion of them were more likely to die of respiratory disease.
Thankfully, this long-overdue study published in the Asian Pacific Journal of Health Sciences leaves no doubt as to what really drove down U.S. life expectancy from 2020 to 2021. (Yes, I am the author of the study, and I make no apologies for promoting it to a wider audience.) The data organized by timelines, age groups, and states leave little room for the “novel virus” in its condemnation of misguided countermeasures that exacerbated a drug epidemic that had already been driving down life expectancy. This 26-minute presentation provides a more accessible summary of the charts for readers who feel overwhelmed by the data.
Science journals are peer-reviewed, but the truly comprehensive analysis occurs after publication. At any rate, the APJHS does not shy away from controversy: In 2023, it published a Norwegian study that examined a possible link between COVID-19 vaccination and higher death rates in Europe. Though I am currently unaware of commentary on the Norwegian study, the fact that it has not yet been retracted indicates (at best) that critics have not been able to find a fatal flaw, or (at worst) that it is just being ignored. The current study on the impact of opioids on U.S. life expectancy is no less harsh on this dark chapter of public health. Hopefully readers of the American Thinker will render its conclusions harder to ignore.
Acknowledgements: I want to thank data analyst Mark Kulacz of Housatonic for his insight on the opioid epidemic and biology coach Jonathan Couey of Gigaohm Biological his insight on population pyramids.
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Image via Pexels.