Midterm elections are usually bad news for the incumbent president. I remember Reagan losing the US Senate in 1986, President Clinton losing everything in 1994, President Bush in 2006, and President Obama getting hit in 2010 and 2014. It’s not easy being an incumbent in midterms!
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What is going to happen in 2026? The quick answer is that history helps the “out” party or the Democrats this time around. However, there are no real signs of a “blue wave” on the horizon. The latest Harris has Democrats plus 2, and the RCP average has Democrats plus 5. A small lead but no wave!
So why is President Trump down, but the Democrats are not up? Maybe the Democrats have simply too many “weirdos” running for office. Let’s check this out from David Strom:
In 2026, Democrats are engaged in a civil war in which the most motivated voters are the most radical, and part of a movement that many voters find deeply troubling. Zohran Mamdani’s election in New York ignited a rush to socialism that could haunt the party come November and into the 2028 presidential election.
I’ve wondered, for instance, why Abdul El-Sayed has been doing so well in Michigan, and one answer is that his message fits the mood of the Democratic Party, and some of that can be attributed to the fact that his opponents sucked.
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El-Sayed is a radical. He’s supported defunding the police, blames everything on AIPAC and the Jews, and campaigns with Hasan Piker. He has a tendency to lie, but in a way that strokes the prejudices of the party’s radical wing.
Yes, he strokes the prejudices of the party’s radical wing but at a price, which is the support of the sane who can’t vote for his insane policies. The Democrats are just too lefty weird for most, and that is President Trump’s best hand in this upcoming midterm election.
From Congresswoman Omar in Minnesota to James Talarico in Texas to Francesca Wong in Wisconsin, this is not your daddy’s Democrat Party. It’s more like your crazy uncle’s party or that uncle who freaked out in the 1960’s and has not been seen since Woodstock.
So, we don’t know what will happen in November. I will predict this. The outcome will be close in the House, largely because President Trump’s enemies make this game of politics very easy for him.
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