Iran can’t stop itself, for it just attacked commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The emotionally satisfying way for Trump to respond would be for him to knock out a bridge or power station. Indeed, I suspect that’s what Iran wants, because it’s willing to take more punishment if it thinks it will harm the Republicans’ chances in the midterms, weakening Trump and giving them an advantage.
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As it happens, they’re right about how this would hurt him in the midterms because Americans don’t want another Middle Eastern war, but they’re wrong about it helping them. Win or lose in the midterms, after November, Trump will be unchained, whether because he’s riding high or because he no longer cares about the midterms.
But currently, Trump does care about those midterms. He needs to keep oil flowing through the Strait so that American prices stay low. And yes, we’re currently the world’s largest oil exporter, but oil operates in a world market. If prices rise due to Iran’s attacks on commercial shipping, that will affect prices across the board, including in the United States.
Currently, the trends are good. Since Trump signed off on the Memorandum of Understanding (“MOU”) with Iran, crude oil prices are barely $8 more per barrel than they were before the war started.
Chart created using ChatGPT’s analysis of pre-war, peak-war, and post-war crude oil prices.
Meanwhile, average gasoline prices, which will always lag, have dropped by 5%:
Chart created using ChatGPT’s analysis of gasoline prices since June 18, the day after Trump signed the MOU.
I’m pretty sure that the plethora of sales at my local grocery store is also a consequence of that MOU. My read is that Harris Teeter doesn’t feel confident enough in the ceasefire to lower prices across the board. If the situation goes sour, it’ll have to raise prices again, which won’t look good. It’s much better to have massive sales that lower consumers’ grocery costs while giving Harris Teeter flexibility in case of future price surges. I’m betting your favorite grocery store is doing the same.
Given how important it is for the midterms for Trump to lower prices and keep American boots off Iranian ground, what can he do to address Iran’s current MOU violations?
Well, here’s where I give you a flashback to about 2019, when Scott Adams was still alive and dispensing wisdom on his podcast. Back then, he was commenting on Trump’s approach to the West Bankians and Hamasistans on Israel’s border.
According to Adams, for decades, world leaders, whether in the U.S. or Europe, had a single approach to negotiating with these people: Every time the West Bankians and/or Hamasistans walked away from the negotiating table or violated a ceasefire agreement, the world powers would respond by sweetening the pot, offering more money and concessions.
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It shouldn’t take a genius to realize that if you reward bad behavior, you get more bad behavior. But apparently, in the world’s capitals, there were no negotiators with even average intelligence on this point. They were all subnormal.
Enter Trump, who had an idea that looked like genius compared to the past morons who sat across the table from the West Bankians and Hamasistans. Every time these guys walked away or violated an existing agreement, he withdrew something from the pot.
Had Trump not been cheated out of his second term, this approach might well have achieved a negotiated settlement between Israel and her low-rent, violent neighbors. (And no, I don’t remember what phase of the negotiations Adams was pointing to. I was walking my dog while listening and it’s been a few years.)
Fast forward to 2026, as Trump seeks to keep the war cool while punishing Iran—and he does precisely what a smart person would do, which is to un-sweeten the pot:
The U.S. is clawing back oil sanctions waivers offered to Iran as part of a framework deal that kicked off a two-month negotiating period after Iran attacked commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz Monday and Tuesday.
A U.S. official confirmed that three commercial vessels were struck by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz between Monday and Tuesday, reigniting tensions after President Donald Trump said the U.S. had given Tehran “a week off” during funeral ceremonies for slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
“As President Trump and the administration have repeatedly affirmed, the MOU in effect with Iran is entirely performance-based. Iran will only reap benefits if they exhibit good behavior,” a U.S. official said, confirming the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) would revoke the sanctions waivers.
And that’s how you do it when you’re juggling a lot of balls in the air. As Trump once said of himself, he’s a very stable genius—and certainly a genius compared to the guys who used to control America’s foreign policy.
UPDATE: Since I wrote the above, Trump has started bombing Iran. Good. He is both unsweetening the pot and giving them some hard slaps to bring the lesson home. That is how you school a country like Iran when it thinks deals do not apply to it.
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Image created using AI.