{"id":3362,"date":"2026-07-21T12:07:54","date_gmt":"2026-07-21T12:07:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/interstatelogisticshubs.com\/?p=3362"},"modified":"2026-07-21T12:07:54","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T12:07:54","slug":"this-is-not-your-daddys-midterm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/interstatelogisticshubs.com\/?p=3362","title":{"rendered":"This is not your daddy\u2019s midterm"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

So far, 2026 doesn\u2019t fit the midterm narrative. I mean the one about unpopular presidents creating an opening for the opposition to sweep the election. Remember 1994 or 2006 or 2010?<\/p>\n

Read more Looking at clouds<\/a><\/p>\n

Yes, 2026 doesn\u2019t fit that narrative despite having an unpopular president based on polls.<\/p>\n

So what\u2019s the big deal? Ronald Brownstein has an idea:<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cViews about the incumbent president\u2019s performance have become arguably the most powerful factor shaping modern midterm elections. But Democrats are struggling to convert pervasive disapproval of Trump\u2019s second term into sufficient support for their House and Senate candidates.<\/p>\n

The result is what might be called the 2026 approval gap. From one direction, Trump\u2019s job approval rating has plummeted below the level that triggered midterm wave elections against other contemporary presidents, including Bill Clinton in 1994, George W. Bush in 2006, Barack Obama in 2010 and Trump himself in 2018. And yet most surveys do not show Democrats establishing a clear or consistent advantage in the key races that will decide control of the House and Senate.<\/p>\n

Evan Roth Smith, a Democratic pollster allied with the party\u2019s centrist wing, notes that in 2018, the share of voters who disapproved of Trump\u2019s performance was about 10 points larger than the share who approved. Today, Smith points out, Trump\u2019s net approval rating is about 20 points negative \u2014 twice as bad \u2014 and yet the Democrat lead in generic ballot tests for the 2026 House election is considerably smaller than the party\u2019s actual advantage of about 8.5 points in the 2018 national House popular vote.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

And that\u2019s the mystery of \u201926. Yes, Trump is down, but so are the other guys.<\/p>\n

So what\u2019s going on?<\/p>\n

Maybe the polls are meaningless, especially when there\u2019s a poll every 5 minutes. It seems like every other story these days is about somebody doing a poll. Do you get the feeling that everyone on the phone at the game is talking to a pollster?<\/p>\n

Read more The UK Censors the Net \u2018For the Children\u2019<\/a><\/p>\n

Maybe the polls or voters don\u2019t get serious until after Labor Day. After all, what poll two years ago had Trump winning the popular vote or 80% of the counties? I recall a lot of experts saying that he might win the Electoral College but never the popular vote.<\/p>\n

Maybe the Democrats just don\u2019t offer a viable alternative to Trump. The Democrats\u2019 message is so confusing these days and hard to follow. One corner wants to cancel the Senate and Electoral College. Then in the other corner they\u2019re screaming that these people don\u2019t speak for the party.<\/p>\n

Wait a minute: Aren\u2019t they winning primaries? Won\u2019t they have a \u201cD\u201d next to their names? What party is that?<\/p>\n

So here we are in mid-July and no one has a clue. It\u2019s sort of been that way since Trump came down the escalator and turned politics upside down.<\/p>\n

Read more America At 250: A Nation Misunderstood, A Nation Unmatched<\/a><\/p>\n

P.S. Check out my blog for posts, podcasts and videos.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

So far, 2026 doesn\u2019t fit the midterm narrative. I mean the one about unpopular presidents creating an opening for the opposition to sweep the election. Remember 1994 or 2006 or 2010? Read more Looking at clouds Yes, 2026 doesn\u2019t fit that narrative despite having an unpopular president based on polls. So what\u2019s the big deal? […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1998,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[707,2],"tags":[1362],"class_list":["post-3362","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-midterms-2026","category-politics","tag-related-topics-midterms-2026-trump"],"yoast_head":"\nThis is not your daddy\u2019s midterm - Interstate Logistics Hub<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/interstatelogisticshubs.com\/?p=3362\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"This is not your daddy\u2019s midterm - Interstate Logistics Hub\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"So far, 2026 doesn\u2019t fit the midterm narrative. 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