{"id":264,"date":"2026-05-27T21:11:14","date_gmt":"2026-05-27T21:11:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/interstatelogisticshubs.com\/?p=264"},"modified":"2026-05-27T21:11:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T21:11:14","slug":"violent-crime-and-demography","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/interstatelogisticshubs.com\/?p=264","title":{"rendered":"Violent crime and demography"},"content":{"rendered":"
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What drives violent crime in society at large? First, we must establish a measure of violent crime. One reliable measure of violent crime is the homicide rate, simply because a dead body is a great indicator. The next question to ask is who would be most inclined to commit violent crime and murder? The answer seems obvious. It is young men in the prime of their life, ages 15\u201330. In fact, there exists a strong correlation (R2 = 0.67) between the percentage of a population in the 15\u201330 age bracket and the homicide rate (see Figure 1).<\/p>

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Figure 1<\/em><\/p>\n

The percentage of young men in a population seems to be the dominant driving factor, but it does not fully explain the violent crime trend. Another factor is violent crime enforcement. A good measure of that is the number of police per capita. However, I was only able to gather a measure of it back to 1992.\u00a0 Starting in that year, one sees the number of sworn officers per 100,000 residents rise, level off in the \u201800s and then decline after 2010 only to rebound a bit after 2015 (see Figure 2).<\/p>\n

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Figure 2<\/em><\/p>\n

The increase in policing was a result of public outrage to the prior period of violent crime from 1970 -90. It is difficult to determine if the additional policing or the decline in the percentage of the population between age 15\u201330 was responsible for the precipitous drop in violent crime in the \u201890s. More than likely, it was a combination of the two factors. Additionally noteworthy is the spike in the homicide rate in 2020 attributable to the \u201cdefund the police\u201d craze in the wake of George Floyd\u2019s drug overdose death while in police custody.<\/p>

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So, it is only natural to ask, \u201cWhat happens when our country imports a large number of young men from distant cultures?\u201d Apart from some charming customs that they may impart to our culture, if one accepts my earlier reasoning, they will also bring a spike in violent crime.<\/p>

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Image generated by ChatGPT.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What drives violent crime in society at large? First, we must establish a measure of violent crime. One reliable measure of violent crime is the homicide rate, simply because a dead body is a great indicator. The next question to ask is who would be most inclined to commit violent crime and murder? 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