{"id":2596,"date":"2026-07-07T14:11:58","date_gmt":"2026-07-07T14:11:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/interstatelogisticshubs.com\/?p=2596"},"modified":"2026-07-07T14:11:58","modified_gmt":"2026-07-07T14:11:58","slug":"americas-path-through-evolutionary-eyes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/interstatelogisticshubs.com\/?p=2596","title":{"rendered":"America\u2019s path through evolutionary eyes"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Biologists who study lion prides have spent decades documenting a pattern that looks, at first glance, like a fixed rule: When a new male takes over a pride, he kills the cubs.\u00a0\u00a0A nursing lioness won\u2019t return to fertility for up to two years, and a new male, whose hold on the pride will likely last only a few seasons, cannot afford to wait that long to father his own offspring.\u00a0\u00a0Genetically, those cubs are strangers to him.\u00a0\u00a0Whatever distant relatedness exists at the population level is far too diluted to register in the fitness math that favors infanticide.\u00a0\u00a0The calculation runs as if relatedness were zero, because effectively it is.<\/p>

Read more The View\u2019s Sunny Hostin says American flags make her feel \u2018unsafe\u2019<\/a><\/p>\n

But the pattern isn\u2019t as fixed as it first appears.\u00a0\u00a0Risk is heavily concentrated in cubs under roughly a year old.\u00a0\u00a0As cubs near independence, outcomes become far less predictable \u2014 some survive, some don\u2019t, in a way that no longer follows a clean rule.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s happening at that threshold has an exact name in ecology: It\u2019s a real-world case of what biologist Eric Charnov formalized in 1976 as the Marginal Value Theorem \u2014 a model, originally built to describe when foraging animals should abandon a depleting food patch, that applies generally to any situation where a strategy pays diminishing returns.\u00a0\u00a0The theorem\u2019s answer is precise: Abandon the current strategy not when it stops working, but the moment its marginal return drops below what\u2019s available elsewhere.\u00a0\u00a0For an incoming lion, killing an eleven-month-old cub barely accelerates the mother\u2019s fertility compared to killing a two-month-old \u2014 the marginal benefit has collapsed, even though the underlying incentive (father my own line, not another male\u2019s) hasn\u2019t changed at all.\u00a0\u00a0A related model, John Maynard Smith\u2019s War of Attrition \u2014 built to explain when animals should escalate a contest versus back down \u2014 runs on the same logic: the winner isn\u2019t whoever is strongest at the outset, but whoever\u2019s cost to continue crosses his expected payoff last.<\/p>\n

None of this involves the lion weighing options.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s a threshold built into behavior by selection pressure over millions of years, tuned to fire exactly where the math favors it.\u00a0\u00a0But it\u2019s still worth naming precisely what kind of selection is doing the work here.\u00a0\u00a0The lion killing cubs unrelated to him is a clean case of individual selection \u2014 a behavior favored because it maximizes his own reproductive output, full stop, with zero regard for the pride\u2019s cohesion or continuity as a group.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s only half the picture in nature.\u00a0\u00a0The other half deserves its own example, because lions don\u2019t illustrate it well.\u00a0\u00a0Belding\u2019s ground squirrels do.\u00a0\u00a0When a predator approaches, some squirrels give a loud alarm call that draws the predator\u2019s attention to the caller while the rest of the colony flees \u2014 a behavior that measurably raises the caller\u2019s own risk of being killed.\u00a0\u00a0Biologist Paul Sherman\u2019s long-running field studies found that the callers were disproportionately females, with close relatives nearby, and rarely isolated males with no kin in earshot.\u00a0\u00a0This is the behavior W.D. Hamilton\u2019s 1964 rule was built to explain: A costly act toward others is favored by selection when the benefit to the recipients, discounted by how closely related they are to the actor, exceeds the cost to the actor doing it.\u00a0\u00a0Below that threshold, self-interest wins.\u00a0\u00a0Above it, a real, measurable willingness to accept personal cost for kin or group benefit takes over \u2014 not because the animal is virtuous, but because the genetic math favors it.<\/p>\n

This isn\u2019t a settled matter in biology.\u00a0\u00a0Kin selection, built on Hamilton\u2019s rule, remains the dominant framework, but in 2010, E.O. Wilson and Martin Nowak published a widely discussed challenge arguing for a stronger role for group-level selection instead \u2014 and were met with a rebuttal signed by well over a hundred evolutionary biologists defending the original framework.\u00a0\u00a0The debate over exactly how individual selection and group-level selection interact is real and ongoing, even if the basic phenomena \u2014 cub-killing on one end, alarm-calling on the other \u2014 are not in dispute.<\/p>

Read more The question the media refuses to ask<\/a><\/p>\n

What lions and ground squirrels illustrate together, then, isn\u2019t one force, but two, running on the same underlying currency: how much capacity an individual or a group has to spend (call it depth); how long the window lasts before that capacity is gone (call it time); and \u2014 separately \u2014 whose interest a given expenditure actually serves, the individual\u2019s or the group\u2019s.\u00a0\u00a0A creature, or a system, can be well short of running out of depth or time and still be spending both unwisely, if the balance between those two forces has shifted too far toward pure individual extraction to sustain the group that depth depends on.<\/p>\n

Human conflict runs on a version of the same problem, raised into conscious judgment rather than fixed instinct.\u00a0\u00a0What Clausewitz called the culminating point of victory \u2014 the moment an army\u2019s aggressive momentum, pressed further, stops serving the war\u2019s purpose and starts consuming the capacity needed to hold what\u2019s already been won \u2014 is the Marginal Value Theorem applied to human warfare: The marginal return of continued attack falls below what patience or consolidation would yield, whether or not the attacking commander recognizes it in time.\u00a0\u00a0The Confederacy fought with real skill and determination but lacked the industrial depth and political time to outlast a Union that kept regenerating its capacity through years of costly setbacks.\u00a0\u00a0Napoleon\u2019s operational brilliance kept winning battles in Spain and Russia long past the point where his empire had the depth left to hold what conquest had won \u2014 a commander who never located his own culminating point until it had already passed.\u00a0\u00a0Paul Kennedy\u2019s study of imperial decline across five centuries found the same failure recurring at civilizational scale: great powers that kept expanding military commitments well beyond what their economies could sustain, not because expansion had stopped working, exactly, but because nobody in command located the threshold before it was gone.<\/p>\n

The individual-versus-group axis runs alongside this, not underneath it as some hidden master force, but as a genuinely separate variable that shapes how fast depth gets spent.\u00a0\u00a0Rome\u2019s long dominance rested substantially on switching, region by region, from destruction to incorporation \u2014 extending citizenship, absorbing local elites, turning conquered populations into soldiers and taxpayers rather than simply garrisoning them, a strategy that pushed toward group-level payoff once outright conquest had done its narrower work.\u00a0\u00a0The Allied victory in the Second World War rested on industrial mobilization that required exactly the kind of costly, individually borne sacrifice ground squirrels model in miniature \u2014 rationing, conscription, years of foregone consumption for collective capacity \u2014 sustained long enough, and widely enough, to outproduce adversaries who could not match it.<\/p>\n

None of this settles where the United States sits today, and it shouldn\u2019t pretend to.\u00a0\u00a0But it does offer two separate, honest questions to ask, rather than one vague sense of national anxiety.\u00a0\u00a0First: Is the country still well short of its culminating point \u2014 still possessing enough generative depth and enough time to recover from present strain \u2014 or is it closer to that threshold than its public conversation admits?\u00a0\u00a0Second, and separately: Is the balance between individual and group-level behavior, across its institutions and its politics, closer to the lion\u2019s math or the ground squirrel\u2019s?\u00a0\u00a0And if the country has drifted farther toward pure individual and factional extraction than it once stood, is that drift itself a form of spending down the depth a nation needs to survive its next real test?<\/p>

Read more Biden-Harris opened the borders. Americans still pay the disastrous price.<\/a><\/p>\n

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Image via PickPik.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Biologists who study lion prides have spent decades documenting a pattern that looks, at first glance, like a fixed rule: When a new male takes over a pride, he kills the cubs.\u00a0\u00a0A nursing lioness won\u2019t return to fertility for up to two years, and a new male, whose hold on the pride will likely last […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1172,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16,1058],"tags":[1059],"class_list":["post-2596","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-culture","category-evolutionary-psychology","tag-related-topics-evolutionary-psychology"],"yoast_head":"\nAmerica\u2019s path through evolutionary eyes - Interstate Logistics Hub<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/interstatelogisticshubs.com\/?p=2596\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"America\u2019s path through evolutionary eyes - 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